Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 194.186893 235.047471 285.417491 353.155697 443.572508 5.626597e+02 7.358763e+02
2025-06-08 141.115278 185.564417 247.007899 341.403022 489.155800 7.239766e+02 1.155101e+03
2025-06-15 123.000270 172.350968 247.013862 375.169862 606.289581 1.046485e+03 2.084112e+03
2025-06-22 105.196346 153.966644 232.567795 378.884499 673.249243 1.324668e+03 3.257797e+03
2025-06-29 93.850030 142.573497 225.538751 391.679189 762.193148 1.715485e+03 5.373995e+03
2025-07-06 82.905413 129.505920 212.237067 387.630612 812.930854 2.059066e+03 8.183846e+03
2025-07-13 78.923675 127.469809 218.133195 424.531834 982.597073 2.941340e+03 1.722159e+04
2025-07-20 74.888331 124.517414 221.443176 456.870787 1162.951316 4.146974e+03 3.962052e+04
2025-07-27 70.623688 120.368246 221.341388 481.095222 1338.472508 5.701149e+03 1.015797e+05
2025-08-03 66.245676 115.291301 218.181399 496.497492 1498.748399 7.618955e+03 3.074265e+05
2025-08-10 61.687172 109.193124 211.578381 500.391778 1621.777326 9.736513e+03 1.162980e+06
2025-08-17 56.848779 101.902056 200.978953 489.506657 1677.670891 1.158357e+04 5.605604e+06
2025-08-24 52.107968 94.473695 189.367465 473.961512 1712.991894 1.362025e+04 1.011103e+08
2025-08-31 47.902715 87.728313 178.401412 457.632261 1737.216227 1.586344e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 47.311738 88.692058 186.572374 507.635944 2177.836516 2.918828e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 44.775908 85.033362 182.318676 513.181372 2369.953376 4.132810e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 43.003349 82.888534 181.685465 532.258109 2689.687541 6.746081e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 40.502200 78.790607 175.108419 526.214561 2821.512453 9.270065e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 40.181626 79.756678 182.754641 581.601174 3585.098494 2.536818e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 39.547490 79.891907 188.094758 630.673327 4448.140459 8.698083e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 38.562371 79.049146 190.403317 667.746591 5323.005225 4.173660e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 37.302223 77.378559 189.897413 691.454642 6136.908373 4.170022e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 35.754772 74.820646 186.192029 697.465469 6735.452706 5.157966e+09 NaN